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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly functions as a kind of apology. We regret we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who orchestrated the biggest turnaround is handed the award. In reality, it sparks an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the greatest shock.

But this year's field is fundamentally unique. The list of nominees is remarkably strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The league has been unpredictable, with recent division champions fading and recent strugglers improving collectively. During an normal season, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this wild and entertaining season, he's up against multiple other outstanding coaches.

Below is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare ability. Since midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system rather than improvising. It is an offense designed solely in Johnson's vision: a physical run game, a heavy helping of play-action and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

The coach came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has paid off. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. But the current is not a typical campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on turnovers, and turnovers are notoriously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's another first-time leader who has masterminded a dramatic turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the best all-around ball of his career. And he's also overseen the transformation of a defense that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has nailed the intangibles stuff, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of youth and experience, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and all elements together.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would veer off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. He didn't. Instead, he streamlined the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year narrative has a pivotal moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Instead, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per dropback over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still